Board Thread:The Last Sovereign Discussion/@comment-27713488-20180114010136/@comment-29984007-20180312173941

DukeLeto7 wrote: Oh trust me, I understand the concept of statistical correlation. (I wish I didn't.) Just in case I wasn't being clear, what I was in fact saying is that there seem to be just as many data points that are exceptions to your rule of "every section of the game has two shining swords" as there are to my rule of "one per update". Possibly more because you have not defined what a "section of the game" is in any detail, whereas the update list is at least clearly defined.

regression isn't the only statistical tool can be used to guess a correlation between variable. and ~20 swords aren't a small number of occurrences, distributed in over 60ish game hours. data analysis can rule out some model and solidified other, nothing conclusive can be deducted, obviously, but some solid fact can be extrapolated from the data.

the update list is the product of many factors, a good number outside the game itself (hours use to develop, time scheduling, problem with the code, etc...) and this make blurred the real division in the game between update. to other side the story is written from the start, and the 'logic section' of it clearly states before even the real development begins.

Given two hypotheses that fit the facts equally well (or badly, as is the case here), we should prefer the simpler explanation. That explanation would be that SL hasn't got a grand geometric plan for the distribution of Shining Swords and is just tossing them in on a whim at a rate of about two every three updates. (2/3 is close enough to 1 for physicists.)

this is highly unfair. precision is a parameter of the system, not something one can assume before even think the problem itself. Yeah, sometime 2/3 is the same of 1, but in other case the difference of 1/1000 can be relevant, the main problem is the insolubility of the differential equation in the real 'world', the solution exists, and will be unique (mathematical theorem ensure it), but we cannot write it in a simple (analytic) formula. even the elementary "simple pendulum" cannot be described by a simple formula, but an approximation of it (in this case the approximation can be small at needed, but many other systems don't share this capacity)

But prove me wrong, make a list of all the shining swords and what update they appeared in vs. what "game section" they appear in and show the "game section" model fits better. And have a damn convincing explanation why your list of "game sections" isn't just drawing lines around sets of two shining swords after the fact, a la the famous "Texas sharpshooter".

in this project of mine had sliced the game in 'logic section' (from the start to the BoY), the focus was a balance in the number of choices the player can make relationed to the gameplay time of the section and the distance from the game start. only after seeing four sections consecutively had two (missable) swords for section [merchant camp + stineford chapter I, devilpass->end megail trouble, roaming section+horde battle, party split] I try to extend the model after the BoY finds a reasonable accordance with the game. the chapter three is realy simple to divide because the chapter is alwasy go outside + govern yhilin (ecception for yhilin 3.5, but can be assimilate to the other because the .5 and war preparative are small of the other 'yhilin stuff section'). so no texan sharpshooter in this case.

the list:


 * Version 0.1: prologue [1 sword(kai)]
 * Version 0.2: delgar forest (up to tal death) [0 sword]
 * Version 0.3: feroholm and merchant camp [0 sword]
 * Version 0.4 + Version 0.5: stineford [2 sword (tunnel+infested)] (i never played this version, so i cannot know the exact version to beign able to collect the two sword)
 * Version 0.6: devil pass [0 sword]
 * Version 0.7: stop istavan/coup [0 sword(missable/1 mandatory)]
 * Version 0.8: merchant trouble [2 sword (manor*2)]
 * Version 0.9: roaming section [1 sword (bar cellar)]
 * Version 0.10: horde battle [1 sword (spoil)]
 * Version 0.11: Megail's route [1 sword (bomb)]
 * Version 0.12: Aka's route [0 sword]
 * Version 0.13: Yarra's route [1 sword (ossuary)]
 * Version 0.14: Simon's route [0 sword]
 * Version 0.15: Reunion [0 sword]
 * Version 0.16: ardford city [0 sword]
 * Version 0.17: summit + unforge [2 sword (vault+unforge)]
 * Version 0.18: Battle of Yhilin [1 sword (mastermind chest)]
 * Version 0.19: Battle of Yhilin aftermath. [1 sword(big man house)]
 * Version 0.20: Save the Queen [0 sword]
 * Version 0.21: Cleans the River [2 sword(sickle+first root)]
 * Version 0.22: Yhilin II [1 sword (andra bodyguard)]
 * Version 0.23: Zirantia I (first day both team) [0 sword]
 * Version 0.24: Zirantia II [1 sword (sphinx)]
 * Version 0.25: Yhilin III/III.5 [1 sword(order final trial)]
 * Version 0.26: Estruin [1 sword (southern tunnel)]
 * Version 0.27: Yhilin pre-war [0 sword]
 * Version 0.28: 3AW Part I (to Riala Fight) [1 sword (holy legion tend)]
 * Version 0.29: 3AW Part II [2 sword (IK castle*2)]
 * Version 0.30: Base customization, expansion, and upgrading [0 sword]
 * Version 0.31: new nations: New Givini, the Chalice States, and Tak'Kan [0 sword]
 * Version 0.32: Tower Run, Extradimensional HQ and Final Yhilin [0 sword]

yes the update with at least one sword is the majority (18vs32), but barely, a thing is more evident, the density of the sword is nearly constant over the game, with the eception of the early release and the post war release after a section without sword is common a section with two shining blade. from this deduct a density of two blade over a single 'game logic unit' is a strech (but well it isn't so big like... the hubble constant for example, lol).

DukeLeto7 wrote:

I am still continuing my concurrent replay attempting to play TLS well, and this included seeing the Ch. 3 interstitial scene with Mystery Divine Being and Mithyn. I wanted to pick apart the exact wording of their conversation and try and tease out some tentative conclusions.

Apart from Zelica, who is mentioned by name but not otherwise identified, there are several distinct parties mentioned.


 * "Her", whose "eye grows ever more powerful".
 * The "Old Man", who saw inside and was broken by the knowledge. All signs point to this being Alonon. (Who is not quite dead yet.)
 * The "Monster" who holds Zelica captive and is concealing himself while he makes his plans vis a vis the Tower. All signs, in particular the female figure who seems to be trapped in a tree in the Prologue, point to this being the Anak.
 * Then there are MDB's "captors".
 * "Our older sister", who doesn't care and has never cared.
 * And lastly "that meaningless man", who is likely to be Simon but may actually be the redheaded message board guy. (It could happen.)

Alrighty, I think all of these are different entities, and that the simplest explanation as to who they all are precludes MDB from being Ivala.

"Her" with the eye is a singular entity who is distinct from the captors of MDB and her "older sister". The captors are a plural, not a female singular and while the "older sister" is also a female singular, her not caring is in direct conflict with "her" having a form of clairvoyance that Mithyn feels the need to conceal her meeting with MDB from.

"Her" is also very powerful and getting moreso. The obvious choice for who "her" is is therefore Ivala, who would presumably be the most powerful female divine being in the universe. The "older sister" could be the Mother, but she doesn't seem all that indifferent to events in the tower and the wider world.

Mithyn's attitude towards the presumed Simon in this scene makes it less likely that she's the Goddess of Magic, who seems less dismissive of Simon when she communicates via Vera in Ari-Yhilina. Balance of probability is that Mithyn is the Succubus goddess.

That leaves a lot of loose threads dangling. Antiala is unaccounted for in this conversation, as is the Goddess of Magic, we have no idea who MDB's "captors" are, although I lean towards the Church of Ivala, and we don't know who MDB is. I'm leaning towards her being a Goddess of Love in contrast to Ivala's domain of humanity or purity (or both).

roughly the same information i deduct from the dialogue, but i think we can scrap another couple of info. mithyn captors are different from the one holding zelica and the mdb captors. mithyn is free only in recent time. we don't know the exact time the dialogue in the 'mountaintop' happening, can be between the start of chapter two and the end of that chapter, even in this case months are passed between ardford summit and the BoY. a bit of importance, if aka team never meets vera/goddess of magic cult 'She' tell "There are worse tyrants." pointing to DK/simon. not a great sign of respect, the real change in the attitude is after the 3AW, and the initial exploration of the 'tower', a long time after the mithyn-mdb dialogue. the recent escape of the winged goddess can explain the lack of historical record over the 'goddess of magic'. antiala is another question. the statues in the pyramid are decipting antiala, but the pyramid is the tomb of an ancient IK the basin between the statues was used for divine magic related ritual. he 'enslave' the goddess and used to dominate the zirantian?

PS:i still think the 'mdb' sia ivala, her 'touch' had calmed carina in the first encounter outside stineford cathedral, and sarai spoke of 'calmess' after knowning the true about simon.